Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
